Dino Polska: The Compounding Machine in Rural Poland
August 14, 2025
4 min read
“We like stocks that generate high returns on invested capital where there is a strong likelihood that it will continue to do so.”
– Warren Buffett
arvy's teaser: Dino Polska is transforming rural grocery shopping into a high-margin compounding machine. Founder-led, debt-light, and relentlessly expanding, it’s proof that disciplined repetition can quietly build one of Europe’s most powerful retail growth stories.
Poland.
The silent rising star in Europe.
Why? Because it’s outgrowing every neighbor — and the whole European Union.
How? Let’s rewind for a quick history flash. In 1989, Poland underwent a seismic shift — from socialism to capitalism, from a state-controlled economy to a free market, initiated by the “Polish Round Table Talks”. The fall of communism and the end of Soviet influence cracked the door open — and the country sprinted through.
The result? An economic boom.
Look at chart 1 — GDP per capita takes off right after that moment. It followed a post–WWII boom, then two decades of stagnation and struggle in the ’70s and ’80s. And here’s the jaw-dropper: When adjusted for inflation and living costs, Poland is on track to overtake Japan in prosperity.
Alright, Florian, I got the macro picture. Why does Poland’s rise matter for investing?
Because there’s a founder-led business that is a direct beneficiary of this growth. A pure play on Poland’s economic momentum and rising consumer prosperity. It’s not flashy. It’s not “the next big tech thing.” It’s a boring business we love at arvy.
A Polish grocery chain selling food and beverage.
Dino Polska.
Chart 1: GDP per capita, data adjusted for inflation and differences in living costs
Source: Eurostat, OECD, and World Bank (2025), data expressed in international $
Founder-led Business Master Class
You know we love businesses that have proven themselves repeatedly — the kind you can “copy & paste” into another market and watch them thrive.
Two examples we own?
Casey’s General Stores — following the playbook of 1) Alimentation Couche-Tard, one of the world’s biggest gas station operators. And 2) Domino’s Pizza — one of the largest pizza chains on the planet.
Another?
MercadoLibre — the “Amazon of Latin America,” where founder Marcos Galperin shamelessly copies what works at Amazon, then adds a Latino twist.
And then there’s Dino Polska.
Think Casey’s — but instead of gas stations in rural America, it’s grocery stores in rural Poland.
That’s the brainchild of founder Tomasz Biernacki, who still owns 51.2% of the company he started in 1999. Yes, this is an owner-operator stock — and founder-led companies have a long history of outperforming.
Fun fact: with a net worth of $7 billion, Biernacki ranks among Poland’s richest people.
How did he pull this off in just 26 years? By building a grocery empire on what works.
Dino Polska’s model is simple but effective (chart 2):
- Standardized store design — around 400 m² each, parking included, stocked with 5,000 products (95% brand names).
- Strategic location — small towns, villages, and suburban areas where land is cheap and competition is thin.
- Fresh supply chain — deliveries every day of the week.
Here’s the kicker: since 2010, Dino has bought nearly all its store properties — owning 95% of them — instead of leasing like most rivals. That means more control, no rent drag, and real estate value on the balance sheet.
Sound familiar? Casey’s does the same — but with gas stations.
The results?
A mature Dino store delivers 25% gross margin, 10% EBIT margin and 30% ROIC at maturity.
That’s founder-led execution at its finest.
Well played, Mr. Biernacki. Well played.
Oh, we are not done yet…
Chart 2: Dino Polska’s Store Count and Network expansion
Source: Dino Polska, Q1 2025 Investor Presentation
Eat, Sleep, Open a Store, Repeat
As you might have noticed from chart 2, Dino Polska tends to open a lot of stores every year.
With only a 5% market share compared to the giant Biedronka at 23%, Tomasz Biernacki has zero interest in resting on his laurels. The current store count stands at 2,746, but the goal is clear: double to 5,000 in the coming years (chart 3). Management is targeting a 20% annual increase in store base.
How?
By doing exactly what works — repeatedly. And Dino Polska has mastered that repetition. The company runs with a healthy balance sheet, almost no debt, and plows every penny of free cash flow back into the business.
Recall: a company with lots of cash can do five things:
- Reinvest into its business at high rates of return
- Make mergers & acquisitions
- Buy back shares
- Pay down debt
- Pay dividends
Paying down debt? Wasteful. M&A? Fails 70–90% of the time. Dividends? Tax-inefficient and a drag on compounding. That leaves share buybacks (tax-efficient) and reinvesting in your own business — the holy grail of a compounding machine.
That’s where Biernacki doubles down.
In 2013, he even founded Krot-Invest, a dedicated construction company for Dino stores. That gives them speed, control, and zero headaches from outside contractors or legal disputes.
The current focus is Eastern Poland, but the door is wide open for future expansion into Czech Republic, Slovakia, or Lithuania.
I think we can agree — this is a “Good Story” worth following.
Now it’s time to look at the “Good Chart.”
And recalling Biernacki’s net worth.
It should look good…
Chart 3: Dino Polska’s Strategy with a Focus on Continuation of Store Openings
Source: Dino Polska, Q1 2025 Investor Presentation
The Trend is Your Friend, Until the End, When it Bends
Dino Polska’s price linearity and compounding are nothing short of impressive.
Since its IPO less than a decade ago, the stock has compounded at a rate of 36% in EUR per annum – though the listing, of course, is in Polish zloty.
An investment of EUR 10,000 grew to EUR 131,790.
With… a grocery chain selling food and beverages.
Ha, gotcha!
You probably didn’t expect such a stellar compounder to come out of Poland, did you?
Poland has grown. Dramatically. I visited Warsaw myself just two years ago and can confirm that the country seems to be building on its own progress. I can imagine a bright future for Poland.
And if we focus on the “Good Chart” side of Dino Polska, we see exceptional price linearity and a stock hitting new all-time highs regularly.
Once you find a good company where the “Good Story” aligns with the “Good Chart”, we can keep it simple and lean on an old market truth.
The trend is your friend, until the end, when it bends.
Chart 4: Dino Polska since Initial Public Offering in 2017
Source: TradingView
